As we look ahead to the 2024 NFL season, the competition for Coach of the Year (COTY) promises to be fierce.
Historically, a coach’s chances of receiving this accolade hinge on their team achieving at least ten wins, with a significant emphasis on improvement from the previous year. Since 2000, COTY winners have averaged 12 victories, with a notable uptick in winsβtypically by at least 5.5 games.
With these benchmarks in mind, letβs explore the contenders shaping up for this prestigious award.
Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers
One of the most talked-about coaching changes this offseason was Jim Harbaugh’s decision to leave the Michigan Wolverines and return to the NFL, taking the helm of the Los Angeles Chargers. Fresh off a championship run in college, he’s stepping into a challenging situation. The Chargers went 5-12 last season, one of the lowest records in the AFC.
However, they have an 8.5-win total projected for 2024, suggesting analysts expect significant improvement. Harbaugh is positioned well to be a Coach of the Year candidate, especially since he has the potential for a 3.5-win increase, which is rare among this yearβs contenders. Yet, despite his pedigreeβhaving previously won this award in 2011 with the San Francisco 49ersβconcerns loom. The Chargers’ defense ranks 27th, and key offensive players have departed.
With Justin Herbert’s injury status also an issue, Harbaugh’s path to the award may be fraught with obstacles, making it a risky bet in the Coach of the Year market. Still, though, he has the best NFL odds.
Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears
Matt Eberflus finds himself at a pivotal moment as the head coach of the Chicago Bears. Despite having faced considerable pressure during his tenure, he might just emerge as a contender for the 2024 Coach of the Year award.
The Bears significantly upgraded their roster, winning the Caleb Williams lottery and subsequently selecting receiver Rome Odunze with the ninth overall pick in the draft.
Additionally, the acquisitions of DβAndre Swift, Gerald Everett, and Keenan Allen complement an offense that already boasts talents like D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet. With PFF ranking their offensive line 11th, Chicago seems poised for improvement.
Current projections suggest a win total of 8.5, with odds indicating they may reach ten wins, which is crucial for Eberflusβs candidacy.
While developing a rookie quarterback presents challenges, if Eberflus can navigate this uncertainty effectively and drive the Bears to the postseason, he could shift from the hot seat to the forefront of Coach of the Year discussions.
Raheem Morris, Atlanta Falcons
Raheem Morris is stepping into a pivotal role as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, and he brings a wealth of experience to the position. Having served as an assistant with the Falcons from 2015 to 2020, including a brief stint as the interim head coach, Morris has a deep understanding of the team’s dynamics.
His success as the defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams further solidifies his reputation, especially after reportedly outpacing coaching legend Bill Belichick for the job.
The Falcons struggled last season with a 7-10 record, but significant changes this offseason could set them on a path to success. With Kirk Cousins signed to a lucrative four-year, $180 million contract and the addition of promising quarterback Michael Penix Jr., the team’s offensive strategy has taken a bold turn.
Supported by a talented roster, including playmakers like Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson, along with a formidable offensive line ranked sixth by PFF, Morris has the tools to lead his team to success. The projected 9.5 win total indicates analysts have faith in his potential to repeat the trend of first-year coaches capturing the Coach of the Year award.
